Something to Do Down The Pub

10 ensemble runs of the new HadGEM3 MET Office model

2012.83 0.39 0.37 0.37 0.35 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.39 0.31 0.29
2012.92 0.40 0.37 0.38 0.35 0.34 0.38 0.35 0.41 0.31 0.29
2013.00 0.42 0.38 0.39 0.35 0.34 0.38 0.34 0.43 0.29 0.28
2013.08 0.42 0.37 0.39 0.35 0.34 0.38 0.34 0.44 0.28 0.27
2013.17 0.43 0.37 0.40 0.37 0.35 0.39 0.31 0.45 0.27 0.25
2013.25 0.43 0.38 0.41 0.39 0.38 0.39 0.28 0.45 0.26 0.25
2013.33 0.43 0.38 0.43 0.39 0.38 0.39 0.26 0.47 0.27 0.26
2013.42 0.45 0.36 0.43 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.27 0.48 0.28 0.29
2013.50 0.45 0.37 0.45 0.41 0.40 0.41 0.26 0.49 0.30 0.31
2013.58 0.45 0.36 0.47 0.43 0.41 0.42 0.25 0.49 0.31 0.31
2013.67 0.45 0.35 0.49 0.43 0.42 0.42 0.23 0.50 0.32 0.32
2013.75 0.46 0.33 0.50 0.44 0.43 0.43 0.23 0.49 0.33 0.33

2013.83 0.47 0.33 0.51 0.45 0.44 0.41 0.24 0.48 0.34 0.33
2013.92 0.47 0.32 0.52 0.48 0.44 0.40 0.25 0.47 0.36 0.34
2014.00 0.45 0.32 0.51 0.47 0.45 0.41 0.27 0.45 0.38 0.34
2014.08 0.45 0.30 0.50 0.47 0.45 0.42 0.27 0.42 0.42 0.36
2014.17 0.45 0.28 0.52 0.48 0.46 0.44 0.30 0.41 0.45 0.35
2014.25 0.45 0.26 0.54 0.48 0.45 0.45 0.33 0.40 0.49 0.35
2014.33 0.46 0.26 0.54 0.47 0.45 0.44 0.36 0.39 0.51 0.36
2014.42 0.46 0.27 0.54 0.47 0.45 0.43 0.38 0.37 0.53 0.35
2014.50 0.47 0.27 0.54 0.47 0.44 0.43 0.40 0.36 0.55 0.36
2014.58 0.48 0.28 0.54 0.46 0.44 0.43 0.42 0.35 0.56 0.36
2014.67 0.49 0.29 0.54 0.46 0.42 0.42 0.44 0.35 0.56 0.34
2014.75 0.49 0.30 0.55 0.46 0.43 0.43 0.45 0.35 0.56 0.33

2014.83 0.48 0.31 0.54 0.45 0.43 0.43 0.46 0.37 0.57 0.32
2014.92 0.47 0.31 0.54 0.45 0.44 0.43 0.46 0.37 0.58 0.30
2015.00 0.47 0.32 0.55 0.45 0.43 0.43 0.49 0.40 0.59 0.30
2015.08 0.47 0.34 0.56 0.46 0.42 0.43 0.52 0.41 0.58 0.27
2015.17 0.46 0.35 0.56 0.46 0.41 0.41 0.55 0.41 0.57 0.26
2015.25 0.46 0.37 0.55 0.47 0.40 0.42 0.55 0.44 0.57 0.25
2015.33 0.45 0.38 0.55 0.49 0.42 0.45 0.55 0.46 0.58 0.25
2015.42 0.45 0.40 0.55 0.48 0.42 0.47 0.54 0.49 0.58 0.25
2015.50 0.46 0.41 0.55 0.48 0.42 0.49 0.54 0.52 0.58 0.23
2015.58 0.44 0.43 0.55 0.50 0.42 0.48 0.53 0.53 0.57 0.24
2015.67 0.42 0.44 0.55 0.49 0.42 0.49 0.55 0.55 0.56 0.25
2015.75 0.41 0.46 0.55 0.48 0.41 0.49 0.56 0.56 0.56 0.26

2015.83 0.40 0.49 0.55 0.47 0.40 0.50 0.56 0.56 0.55 0.27
2015.92 0.39 0.51 0.56 0.46 0.39 0.52 0.55 0.57 0.54 0.30
2016.00 0.39 0.51 0.56 0.45 0.38 0.52 0.54 0.57 0.55 0.32
2016.08 0.40 0.52 0.56 0.44 0.37 0.52 0.52 0.58 0.55 0.35
2016.17 0.38 0.53 0.55 0.42 0.37 0.54 0.49 0.59 0.53 0.38
2016.25 0.38 0.53 0.53 0.40 0.35 0.53 0.51 0.60 0.51 0.40
2016.33 0.36 0.54 0.55 0.39 0.34 0.52 0.52 0.60 0.50 0.41
2016.42 0.34 0.53 0.56 0.39 0.32 0.53 0.54 0.58 0.49 0.41
2016.50 0.32 0.52 0.57 0.40 0.31 0.52 0.55 0.57 0.48 0.43
2016.58 0.31 0.51 0.59 0.37 0.32 0.52 0.55 0.57 0.47 0.42
2016.67 0.31 0.51 0.61 0.37 0.32 0.53 0.55 0.56 0.46 0.42
2016.75 0.32 0.51 0.61 0.40 0.31 0.54 0.55 0.55 0.44 0.41

2016.83 0.33 0.51 0.60 0.41 0.31 0.53 0.56 0.55 0.43 0.42
2016.92 0.34 0.49 0.62 0.41 0.31 0.50 0.59 0.54 0.41 0.40
2017.00 0.35 0.48 0.62 0.42 0.33 0.47 0.59 0.52 0.40 0.38
2017.00 0.36 0.47 0.61 0.43 0.34 0.45 0.59 0.49 0.37 0.38
2017.17 0.38 0.46 0.59 0.44 0.35 0.41 0.61 0.48 0.36 0.38
2017.25 0.38 0.46 0.60 0.44 0.38 0.41 0.61 0.45 0.36 0.36
2017.33 0.39 0.46 0.57 0.44 0.39 0.41 0.60 0.43 0.34 0.35
2017.42 0.41 0.45 0.56 0.44 0.41 0.39 0.59 0.42 0.31 0.34
2017.50 0.43 0.46 0.53 0.42 0.42 0.38 0.58 0.42 0.28 0.32
2017.58 0.44 0.45 0.51 0.42 0.42 0.38 0.58 0.41 0.28 0.31
2017.67 0.45 0.42 0.48 0.43 0.43 0.36 0.59 0.40 0.29 0.30
2017.75 0.45 0.40 0.47 0.40 0.43 0.35 0.60 0.39 0.29 0.29

• 2013       0.43 0.37 0.43 0.39 0.38 0.40 0.29 0.46 0.29 0.29       0.37
• 2014       0.47 0.29 0.53 0.47 0.44 0.43 0.34 0.40 0.48 0.35       0.42
• 2015       0.45 0.38 0.55 0.47 0.42 0.45 0.53 0.46 0.57 0.27       0.45
• 2016       0.36 0.52 0.57 0.41 0.35 0.52 0.54 0.58 0.51 0.38       0.47
• 2017       0.39 0.46 0.56 0.43 0.38 0.42 0.59 0.46 0.34 0.35       0.44

The graph above is the latest addition to the UK MET office decadal predictions found here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc This graph has been produced from the latest CCM and when comparing it to the previous graphs below then the predictions, white lines, become glaringly different.

The graph above one of the earliest from 2007 (Smith et al 2007)

An update in 2009 that used to be present at the MET office decadal predictions page

And the last one to get trashed, the 2011 version.

I was having a look at the monthly HadCET data downloaded from:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

Firstly extracting the 1961-1990 average monthly data as:

Jan 3.6  Feb 3.9  Mar 5.7  Apr 7.9  May 11.2  Jun 14.2  Jul16.1  Aug 15.8  Sep 13.0  Oct 10.6  Nov 6.6  Dec 4.7

Create anomalies for all months and do a count if >0 to give the number of months in the year that exceed the 1961-1990 average;

From the complete data it can be seen that there are some step changes which are  not expected. Taking the data for 1701-1900:

This gives a linear trend at 5.1 months over a 200 year period. That is that on average only 5 months of the year exceeded the 1961-1990 average, a cooler climate.

The data for 1900-1910 indicates a step change to another period of stability giving:

The linear trend now is 6 months over a 77 year period. That is that on average 6 months of the year exceeded the 1961-1990 average. One month per year higher than the previous 200 year period.

Taking the data for 1988-2012 we see the final step change:

The linear trend now is now 8.6 months over a 25 year period. That is on average nearly 9 months of the year exceeded the 1961-1990 average. Of course this depends upon the outcome of 2012 and if Oct,Nov and Dec fall below their 1961-1990 averages.

Is this another step change at the end of the data, only time will tell.

Source: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html

The variability of temperatures is immediately noticeable between the summer minimums and winter minimums. The question is why do the summer months get smoothed, is it down to the influence of the Sun as the Northern hemisphere tips towards the Sun?

The same influence is there for the maximum temperatures but not as pronounced.

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